See massive growth in EV two-wheelers in India: NITI Aayog
Government thinktank report says two-wheeler EV sales in India could cross 220 lakh units in FY 2028–29; sees 100% penetration
India’s two-wheeler EV sales are likely to surpass 220 lakh units by 2028-29, resulting in 100% penetration if all goes well, according to the latest EV report released by the NITI Aayog and TIFAC, the government’s technology think-tank, on 28 June.
India’s ‘total’ two-wheeler sales in FY 2021-22 stood at 13.46 lakh units (down 11% YoY from 15.12 lakh units in FY 2020-21), according to Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). Two-wheeler EV sales in 2021 stood at around 1.4 lakh units.
The report further highlighted the upside. It said, “If there is sufficient installed capacity of electric two-wheelers and charging infrastructure, then sales (about 250 lakh units) may at some point even surpass the production under the ‘Optimistic’, ‘Same Performance’ and ‘Battery Cost Challenged’ scenarios.”
However, sales may end up at 180 lakh units under the “Technology-Driven” scenario, said the report. Under the “Incentive Drive” scenario, sales will likely reach only 55 lakh units in FY 2031.
In terms of penetration, the report says that the forecasts point to 100% by FY26-27 in the “Optimistic Scenario”; and 72% by 2031 in which the current incentives (Rs.15,000 per kWh of battery capacity; up to 40% of the vehicle cost) are withdrawn by 2024, though the government could extend it until 2031.
Electric two-wheelers took off in India in the 1990s, when Bajaj Auto, Scooters India Ltd., Hero Motor Corporation, etc, jumped into the development of EVs. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) offered subsidy on EVs during 2010-12. However, sales fell significantly once the subsidy was withdrawn. After the launch of the FAME scheme, several new electric two-wheeler manufacturers have emerged, including Ather Energy, Okinawa, Pure EV and Ampere Vehicles, etc. Ola has major plans, while Hero Electric and Bajaj Auto are also manufacturing electric two-wheelers.
The report concluded, “… a shift to electric mobility, particularly, in the two-wheelers segment, may happen faster than anticipated. There is a positive mindset about electric mobility among the consumers and recent rise in the price of petroleum fuels has played a major role towards this shift.”
NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said, “This report provides a much-needed tool to the industry, researchers, academicians, and policymakers to analyse and respond to various scenarios. It can be replicated easily in other segments too, such as four-wheelers, without any hassle.”
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